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In my previous BTC analysis, I mentioned the high probability of a short-term upside movement, testing the previous green resistance.  This is what happened:

What can we expect now?  Corrections can be extremely tricky, and its normally where the market hunts for stop losses.

I´m currently working with 2 scenarios (both are bearish, but the second one still accounts for some more upside):

A) A regular flat has been completed

This is my primary scenario.  Regular flats have a wave B that is close to 100% of wave A, and wave C should occur in 5 sub-waves (a diagonal is also valid).  This is what we have on the chart:

For this scenario to gain strength, a breakdown from green support at 16,650 would be necessary.

What I don´t like about this chart is that the pullback to the upside is very short.  It hasn´t even touched 38.2% (at 17,070).  Of course, pullbacks can be really short, but statistically speaking, it is not what usually happens.

This leads us to the second scenario:

B) The correction is a zigzag

In the zigzag, wave C would go higher than wave A, and the A-B extension is usually between 100% and 161.8%. This is shown on the following chart as the big yellow box.

If price continues rising, my favorite target for a reversal is the 17,320 zone, which is a confluence of 50% pullback and a strong resistance level (shown in blue).

Note that in both scenarios, my bias is very bearish.  Even if we go higher on the next few days, I do expect a breakdown from the yellow box zone.

Between the green support and resistance areas, I´ll just watch.

What are YOUR ideas?

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  1. […] is why I expect that, even we have some pullbacks to the upside (as I mentioned in yesterday´s Bitcoin 4HR Timeframe analysis), they will be opportunities for short […]

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