There has been a lot of discussion lately on social media regarding Bitcoin having bottomed or not.

My thesis for Bitcoin´s price prediction is very simple, based on 2 confluence factors, which leads me to believe 12,000 will be tested before the downtrend is over.

This is the overall picture on the weekly chart:

Let´s get into the details on the confluence factors…

A) The corrective zigzag

We are in a large correction that has the signature of an zigzag, shown as a black A-B-C on the chart.

It is very common (at least 70% probability) that wave C will be at least 100% of wave A, starting from wave B.

This is the price level, sitting at 12,107, shown in the blue circle in the following image:

B) Strong support at 12,000

Price fights against support and resistance levels, and when one of these is broken, price usually looks for the next one.  It´s how markets act.

As shown in the next image, the very strong support at 19,000 (top gray area) held in early/mid 2922, but was finally broken.  Next support is at 12,000 which acted as strong resistance from 2018 to 2020.

This is why I expect that, even we have some pullbacks to the upside (as I mentioned in yesterday´s Bitcoin 4HR Timeframe analysis), they will be opportunities for short trades.

Only a major reversal process will make me reconsider this view.

For the time being, follow the trend, and don´t try to guess that a bottom is in place.