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As the cryptocurrency market continues to evolve, some coins may experience a period of sideways movement, making it difficult for traders to predict future price action. Monero (XMR) has been in such a phase over the past year, posing challenges for those attempting to analyze its trajectory. In this article, I explore several probabilities based on technical analysis, aiming to provide insights into Monero’s potential price prediction.

Over the past 12 months, Monero’s price has been relatively stagnant (current price is practically the same as 1 year ago), leading to a challenging analysis due to the prolonged sideways correction. As such, we must work with probabilities to better understand its potential movements.

First Probability:

Pullbacks usually reach a 50% retracement. Monero’s gradual rise has not yet reached the 50% level, leaving room for further growth. The 50% retracement level is a commonly observed technical level is observed by market participants. Monero’s case, the fact that the price has not yet reached this critical level suggests that there might still be some bullish sentiment and further upside potential.

Second Probability:

Correction swings or waves typically extend at least 100%. XMR has also fallen short of this mark, and the pivot of black wave B hasn’t been breached. The 100% extension is another key technical level that has over 70% incidence. In Monero’s context, the fact that the price has not yet reached this level may indicate that the correction is incomplete and that we may see a continuation of the current trend.  Note that the 100% extension matches almost perfectly with the 50% pullback level, which is an interesting confluence factor.

Third Probability

Price has tested and rejected a confluence of trendlines as support, indicating a possible upward movement as a follow-through. Trendlines are essential tools for traders to understand the overall direction of the market. In Monero’s case, the rejection of the confluence of trendlines as support signifies that the market participants are still confident in the coin’s potential to rise in value. This sentiment, combined with the other technical factors, increases the likelihood of an upward price movement.

XMR Monero Price Prediction

Taking these three factors into account, I have a bias towards XMR continuing its upward trajectory, potentially reaching at least $193 (a 50% pullback to the upside). While my expectation is for the $132.3 level to hold, this scenario only becomes invalidated below $115.3.

While Monero’s sideways movement over the past year has made it challenging to predict its future price action, by analyzing probabilities based on technical factors, traders can navigate the uncertainty. By considering the pullback retracement, correction wave extensions, and trendline support levels, there is a potential for XMR to continue its climb towards the $193 mark.

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